Monday, August 31, 2009

c-2084’s Prognostication for end of 2009 into 2010

As crazy as they may seem, these are my predictions for the next 12-18 months.

1) 2009/2010 NFL season will be interrupted due to a national emergency / disaster.

2) Commercial real estate continues its decline and as severe as it is, the second wave of ALT –A and ARM resets will be even more dramatic then the first wave that set the housing market downward. The bottom line is national average housing prices drop an additional 30%

3) Baking holiday declared immediately after the end of 2009 that period of time we used to describe as holiday shopping. Used to. In 2009 holiday shopping will represent less than 50% of 2007 volume. Do not measure dollars spent, the inflation will hide the real impact, measure total units, items per sale.

4) By the summer of 2010 we will announce the resumption of the military draft, whether it is for a civilian duty or traditional service, it will be compulsory.

5) By the end of 2010 capital controls and/or price controls will be implemented in US.

God have mercy on our children.

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